New researchPJM's Reliability Backstop and the Bifurcated Retail Rate Outlook
Retail Rate Forecast · RB-COMED-CRGA-01

ComEd + CRGA Distributed Solar Rate Forecast

State: Illinois Region: PJM Utility: ComEd Type: Forecast Status: Available now

A component-level forward forecast for ComEd Illinois retail rates with a CRGA storage procurement overlay. Built for community solar developers and asset acquirers underwriting in Illinois where the storage ramp materially affects distribution-component trajectories.

What’s decomposed

ComEd retail rates are reconstructed from filed tariffs and projected forward by component. The CRGA overlay tracks Illinois storage procurement targets and their flow-through into distribution rates over the forecast horizon.

Generation supply

Anchored to PJM forward curves and ComEd’s default service procurement cadence.

Capacity recovery

PJM BRA-derived capacity costs flowed through to ComEd retail recovery, with zone-specific allocation impacts.

CRGA overlay

Illinois storage procurement targets and the projected impact on the Infrastructure Service Charge rider over the forecast horizon.

T&D and rider components

Forward T&D escalators and policy rider trajectories built from rate-case history and ICC orders.

Who this is for

Community solar developers building under the Illinois Solar for All and Adjustable Block programs. Asset acquirers evaluating ComEd-territory portfolios with storage retrofit or repowering exposure. Project finance teams underwriting against the CRGA-driven storage ramp.

Methodology

Reconstruct the ComEd tariff from filed schedules. Decompose into generation, capacity, T&D, and rider components. Layer the CRGA storage procurement schedule into ISC rider projections. Deliver as Excel-ready forward curve with methodology memo. Updated when the market moves.

Sample output preview

# ComEd + CRGA — Forward Curve Excerpt ($/MWh)

# -----------------------------------------------

2026: $128.40 Generation: $64.20 Capacity: $14.20 T&D: $42.80 CRGA Rider: $7.20

2027: $134.10 Generation: $66.20 Capacity: $16.10 T&D: $43.70 CRGA Rider: $8.10

2028: $142.30 Generation: $69.50 Capacity: $18.40 T&D: $44.90 CRGA Rider: $9.50

2029: $148.80 ...

...

2050: $267.40 Generation: $148.30 Capacity: $42.10 T&D: $61.80 CRGA Rider: $15.20

Excerpt only. Full deliverable includes 25-year curve, methodology memo, and three scenario cases.