New researchPJM's Reliability Backstop and the Bifurcated Retail Rate Outlook
Retail Rate Forecast · RB-BGE-RES-01

BGE Residential Retail Rate Forecast

State: Maryland Region: PJM Utility: BGE Type: Forecast Status: Available now

A continuously-updated, component-level forward forecast for Baltimore Gas & Electric residential rate trajectories. Built from BGE Schedule R filings, PJM wholesale market signals, and forward-looking transmission and distribution escalators.

What’s decomposed

BGE retail rates are reconstructed from filed tariffs and projected forward by component. Each component evolves on its own driver, so the trajectory you see is the sum of distinct forecasts rather than a single escalator applied to a 2025 number.

Generation supply

Anchored to PJM forward energy curves and BGE’s Standard Offer Service procurement cadence.

Capacity recovery

Built from PJM BRA history and forward auction expectations, including the proposed reliability backstop allocations.

Transmission & distribution

Forward escalators built from BGE’s rate-case history, MPSC orders, and capital plan filings.

Rider components

EmPOWER, universal service, and policy adjustments tracked separately so subscribers can isolate each driver.

Who this is for

Distributed solar developers underwriting community solar in BGE territory. Asset acquirers evaluating BGE-territory portfolios for merchant tail or PPA exposure. Project finance teams who need a defensible alternative to a flat 2–3% escalator for their internal underwriting model.

Methodology

Reconstruct the tariff from BGE Schedule R filings. Decompose into generation, capacity, T&D, and rider components. Project forward using ISO wholesale curves, BRA models, and component-specific escalators. Deliver as Excel-ready forward curve with methodology memo. Updated when the market moves.

Sample output preview

# BGE Residential — Forward Curve Excerpt ($/MWh)

# ---------------------------------------------

2026: $191.40 Generation: $112.20 Capacity: $32.10 T&D: $39.10 Riders: $8.00

2027: $197.83 Generation: $115.62 Capacity: $34.50 T&D: $39.71 Riders: $8.00

2028: $205.20 Generation: $119.10 Capacity: $37.20 T&D: $40.90 Riders: $8.00

2029: $213.40 ...

...

2050: $342.10 Generation: $204.80 Capacity: $73.10 T&D: $52.20 Riders: $12.00

Excerpt only. Full deliverable includes 25-year curve, methodology memo, and three scenario cases.